The cost of not learning from the Black Swan event

The cost of not learning from the Black Swan event.

Things were pretty okay……Yes too much pretty okay……And suddenly less than 24 hours i.e. around at 11 AM, as part of my regular connect with a covid-19 positive team member, I was shocked to hear the news of the untimely demise of our 38 years’ old colleague due to covid-19. All of us are traumatized by this loss. Although, the process of grief will settle things in time. But the memories of loss shall always remain there in institutional memories.

 At this time most of us must be going through bereavement due to the loss of near and dear ones. It’s been more than a year to be far-far away from normal life. Few were predicted that this would be the new normal until we get a vaccine for all, which may act as an antidote for this pandemic. Few were also of opinion, this could have been avoided by appropriate measures like wearing masks, social distancing, etc. But today nothing seems working in the fight against unprecedented times. It’s not the real fight against the deadlier Covid-19, it’s the fight against the missed learning opportunity to fight against the pandemic.

The year 2020 would be marked as an annus horribilis and substantially it gets extended in the year 2021 as well. The unprecedented journey of a disastrous state continues. There was ample window of opportunity to learn from the year 2020 not only in terms of improving healthcare but also matters pertaining to education, logistics, economy, etc. 

Some may argue that the comparison of the year 2020 with the year 2021 would not the fair, as the second wave just happening in India is on a massive scale now. Earlier we witnessed the softer aspect of the Black Swan event. Hence, the learnings of the 2020 pandemic could have been acted as a better solution for the second wave of the year 2021. The official figures stand at 2.3 crores infected and most than 2.5 lakhs lost their life in the fight against Covid-19. There is myriad analysis available for predictions. 

 The black swan event which by definition is sudden and unpredictable even causes massive damage. The pandemic that took place in 2020 was a black swan for the world and a nightmare for many countries' economics. Unplanned and unexpected lockdowns crippled the economy forcing a majority of people to migrate from urban pockets to rural pockets people.

 I have read a couple of articles written by Dr. Devi Shetty a globally renowned cardiologist, in those narrations he has been championing the issues to be addressed on the war front like the shortage of health care professionals and vaccinating parents to avoid future damage from the third wave.

The past learning would have helped us to make an adequate shield in the fight against the second wave. That adequate shield in terms of sufficient hospitals and beds, ICUs, massive vaccine production facilities, Oxygen supplies and well competent health care human resources, appropriate education infrastructure to strengthen education, strong transport, and logistics, and the list is endless.

The only point to make is learning from past black swan events would have controlled the damage. Now is the time to control the damage, recover and prepare for the best health care facilities for the future, not for any pandemic but also for the general health and wellbeing of citizens.

 

Faith

Amol Nakve